DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/17 11:23

   Beans, Corn Higher at Midday

   Old crop corn and beans are seeing double-digit midday gains. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock markets are higher with the Dow up 60. The interest rate 
products are higher. The dollar index is 67 higher. Energies are higher with 
crude up $.30. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
down $15.  

   CORN

   Corn trade is a dime higher on July to 2 lower on December at midday. Some 
rain moved through last night, likely idling some areas today with more coming 
over the weekend. This seemed to slow the pressure this morning. December 
futures slipped to the $5.17 level which many may call a double bottom with 
this matching our late April low. That would be if we can firm into the close. 
Although we can point to new crop balance sheets and bang the bear drum, the 
trade is skeptical after the below to well below trendline yields the past 
three years. So the trade is not expecting weather preimium to just disspear 
when we have around half the crop to still get in the ground. Late plantings 
mean a late arrival of new crop corn which is supporting old crop futures. Also 
this pushes pollination later into the summer when the probabilities are for 
more stressful weather. Informa lowered its planted acres at 96.82 million 
acres, which was not a large enough drop to get anyone excited. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 10-15 higher on old crop, with new crop slightly firmer. 
Meal is $3-6 higher, and soyoil is 10 to 20 higher. On the July soybean chart 
we have moved above the 200-day moving average at $14.32 overnight, a close 
above here should help to find more buying. New-crop beans are looking to 
remain sideways for the moment with little fresh news there but faster corn 
planting should support trade. Brazil has had labor issues flare up again, 
potentially disrupting shipping in the near term. There continue to be rumors 
of imports to the U.S., but prices need to go higher still to make it work. The 
USDA announced two cargos of beans sold to China for the new crop year, and two 
more to unknown desinations for next year as well. Informa increased their 
soybean acreage estimate to 78.6 million acres. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 5 to 8 lower in Chicago and Kansas City, and flat to 2 lower 
on the Minnepaolis trade. The market has a firm tone at midday due to spillover 
support from the row crops. The stronger dollar and better weather forecasts 
for Russia has helped to encourage selling. Some fresh talk of exports is 
lingering around the market, and could surface over the weekend. Barring a good 
recovery today, wheat could potentially see further chart pressure towards the 
$6.65 area on the Chicago. Poor weather for the hard red wheat belt should 
support spreads. Private crop estimates were for 12.4 million acres of spring 
wheat.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser


(BS)

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